UP will decide whether Bjp's 400 plus slogan can be achieved or not.

It is a do or die battle for opposition in UP as they face the double engine power of Yogi Adityanath and PM Modi under the shadow of Ram Mandir and aggressive hindutva politics.

By Kuldip Balyan & S.Parthasarathy
22nd June-2024 12.44 hrs

The general election of 2024 is crucial for both BJP and Congress led I.N.D.I.A alliance. While the former is fighting for establishing its supreme authority on Indian politics, the later is fighting for its political survival.

This time, the NDA under Yogi Adityanath's leadership in the state has formed an alliance that comprises Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) and Apna Dal (Sonelal).

The Opposition's face in UP is Akhilesh Yadav and his Samajwadi Party, which is spearheading the challenge by the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, with the Congress Party as a junior partner. Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which was in alliance in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls with the SP, is fighting on its own.

Bjp is enjoying a edge over opposition this time, thanks to the charismatic leadership of Yogi and Modi. The decision by BSP to fight it alone is also beneficial for BJp as it will divide the anti Bjp votes specially of the Dalits into two halves. The party has a well-established organizational structure in UP, with grassroots level cadre workers and a network of volunteers coming from the wider Sangh Parivar led by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

BJP's Hindutva ideology resonates with a large portion of the population in UP, which could translate into strong support during elections, particularly after the inauguration of the promised Ram Temple in Ayodhya in January earlier this year.The development agenda is also with BJp after delivering huge infrastructure and industrial projects to the state.


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But Bjp has its own share of woes, the most prominent of all is the anti incumbency factor. After 10 yrs of rule small pockets of discontent has developed across the state. The SP under Akhilesh Yadav is trying hard to exploit these pockets. Caste-based politics still plays a significant role in UP, and BJP might face challenges in certain regions where caste equations are not in its favour.

The joint Opposition comprising Akhilesh Yadav-led SP along with Congress can present a formidable front against the BJP. The coalition can consolidate the votes of minorities and other disgruntled communities and castes against the ruling party. Having said that, the exclusion of Mayawati-led BSP creates a significant third front as well — which could dent the votes of the I.N.D.I.A. group. The matter of farmers protest, the unrest created by women wrestlers are going to trouble Bjp in the Jat dominated Western UP.

Recent turmoil in Haryana politics is also going affect Bjp in Western UP. Despite these, the overall situation for Bjp is strong, but if we look into individual seats we can see that Bjp is facing formidable challenge from united opposition in around 15-20 seats due fatigue from Bjp as well as evolving caste equation.

But Bjp has build a strong coalition to consolidate and expand its vote bank. Its coalition now comprises Jayant Chaudhary-led RLD, SBSP and Apna Dal (S). The RLD particularly could help the BJP address farmer unrest in the crucial western region of the state.

But there are several factors which are helping Bjp which includes various welfare schemes, PMAY, strong PDS, PM Rural development programs and large urban projects. The party has zeroed in on rapid urbanisation in UP with equal focus on cities such as the capital Lucknow, Kanpur, Meerut, Noida, Allahabad, Varanasi and more — with infrastructure projects like metro train routes, IITs and IIMs.

To counter the Bjp development narrative, SP is projecting problems of unequal distribution of national wealth, Unemployment and Social Discontent. SP has strong support of Yadav and Muslim voters. It has strong backup of Jat voters this time, but recent history shows Jats votes normally switch sides just before the elections. The OBC votes are crucial this time for opposition as upper caste votes are likely go towards BJP. Dalit votes are likely to be divided between Bjp, SP and BSP. The Congress party is unlikely to do any better than 2019 and it remains sidelined this time also.

A deeper seat wise analysis shows that BJP+ can expect 68 to 73 seats this time while opposition can expect 7-12 seats. What would be the exact figure can only be known on 4th June.

By Kuldip Balyan


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