US presidential elections in 2024 is fast becoming the most controversial and interesting election in the US history. Both the Democrats and Republicans are in a state of total disarray due to their own leaders Joe Biden and Donald Trump whose contrasting policies is tearing the American voters apart.

The Republican Party is known to support right-leaning ideologies of conservatism, social conservatism, and economic libertarian-ism, among other - isms. Thus, Republicans broadly advocate for traditional values, a low degree of government interference, and large support of the private sector. One main standpoint of the Republican Party platform is a strong focus on the family and individual freedom. Generally, the Republican Party therefore often tends to promote states’ and local rights. That means that they often wish for federal regulations to play a lesser role in policy making. Furthermore, the GOP has a pro-business-oriented platform. Thus, the party advocates for businesses to exist in a free market instead of being impacted by tight government regulations.

The Democratic Party (whose logo is a donkey) generally represents left-leaning, liberal and progressive ideological values, thus advocating for a strong government to regulate business and support for the citizens of the United States. Thus, one of the key values emphasized by Democrats is social responsibility. Overall, Democrats believe that a prominent and powerful government can ensure welfare and equality for all. Much like the Republican Party, political opinions within the Democratic Party stretch across a wide spectrum, as both parties are, to a large degree, decentralized. However, from a general point of view, Democrats tend to support heavy taxation of high-income households. In comparison to Denmark, where taxes are generally high, the Democratic taxation policy may not seem excessive, but on a U.S. taxation scale these tax percentages are in the heavy end.

With the election still more than six months away, a new Pew Research Center survey finds that the presidential race is virtually tied: 49% of registered voters favor Donald Trump or lean toward voting for him, while 48% support or lean toward Joe Biden. A defining characteristic of the contest is that voters overall have little confidence in either candidate across a range of key traits, including fitness for office, personal ethics and respect for democratic values.

Where Trump has the advantage: More than a third of voters say they are extremely or very confident that Trump has the physical fitness (36%) and mental fitness (38%) needed to do the job of president. Far fewer say the same of Biden (15% are at least very confident in his physical fitness; 21% are extremely or very confident in his mental fitness). Majorities say they are not too or not at all confident in Biden’s physical and mental fitness.

Where Biden has the advantage: More voters are extremely or very confident in Biden (34%) than in Trump (26%) to act ethically in office. And while 38% say they are at least very confident in Biden to respect the country’s democratic values, fewer (34%) express that level of confidence in Trump.

The new Centre survey of 8,709 adults – including 7,166 registered voters – conducted April 8-14, 2024, finds large divides in voters’ candidate preference by age, education, and race and ethnicity. As was the case in 2020, younger voters and those with a four-year college degree are more likely to favour Biden than Trump. Older voters and those with no college degree favor Trump by large margins.

Among racial and ethnic groups: White voters favour Trump (56%) over Biden (42%) by a wide margin. Roughly three-quarters of Black voters (77%) support Biden, while 18% back Trump. Hispanic voters are more evenly divided – 52% favor Biden, while 44% back Trump. Asian voters favor Biden (59%) over Trump (36%).

Most voters who turned out in 2020 favor the same candidate in 2024: Among validated 2020 voters, overwhelming majorities of those who cast ballots for Biden (91%) and Trump (94%) support the same candidate this year. Registered voters who did not vote in 2020 are about evenly divided: 48% back Trump, while 46% support Biden.
A majority of voters say “it really matters who wins” the 2024 race. Today, 69% of voters say it really matters which candidate wins the presidential contest this November. This is somewhat smaller than the share who said this in April 2020 about that year’s election (74%). Nearly identical shares of Biden’s and Trump’s supporters say the outcome of the presidential race really matters.

About half of voters would replace both Biden and Trump on the 2024 ballot. Reflecting their dissatisfaction with the Biden-Trump matchup, nearly half of registered voters (49%) say that, if they had the ability to decide the major party candidates for the 2024 election, they would replace both Biden and Trump on the ballot. Biden’s supporters are especially likely to say they would replace both candidates if they had the chance. Roughly six-in-ten (62%) express this view, compared with 35% of Trump supporters. There also are stark age differences in these views: 66% of voters under 30 say they would replace both candidates if they had the chance, compared with 54% of those ages 30 to 49 and fewer than half (43%) of those 50 and older.

The 2024 US presidential election is unusual in many ways, with the unfolding nomination process already providing several examples of these irregularities. The out-party’s nominee has become clear unusually early—identifying the presumed nominee often takes at least a month after the Iowa caucuses and sometimes until Super Tuesday (March 5). But while the primary winner is normally nearly certain to win the nomination, former President Trump’s legal issues leave residual uncertainty. And the incumbent’s nomination is also unusually uncertain, with prediction markets still putting President Biden’s odds (84%) of being on the ballot in November slightly below Trump’s (91%).

A sitting president trailing in the polls and a former president seeking re-election should also make for unusual election-year policy dynamics. Biden has a greater incentive to push through policies to help his re-election, even involving compromises he would not normally make. But if the White House is open to big policy concessions for small pre-election gains, Republican lawmakers seem less inclined to take policy wins, instead choosing to retain those issues for the campaign. Trump’s recent significant wins in Iowa and New Hampshire also give his views new weight among Republican lawmakers. This tendency is clearest in immigration policy.

The Senate is within reach of a deal on tighter policies and more funding for the US-Mexico border, which Senate Republicans made a condition of providing further aid to Ukraine. However, a border deal would remove the urgency from a campaign issue that benefits Republicans. Trump, who already opposed more Ukraine aid, has come out against the deal, making House passage difficult. As such, we think the odds of either additional Ukraine funding or a border deal before the election are below 50%.

A similar situation exists with regard to fiscal policy. Democrats have sought an expanded child tax credit since it expired in 2022, in return for restoring several Republican backed business tax incentives. As with a US-Mexico border/ Ukraine deal, this tax deal would involve Democrats making big concessions (a reduction of $140bn in business tax receipts in 2024) for relatively small gains ($10bn more in child tax credits in 2024). While the House has passed the deal in a strong bipartisan vote, progressive Democrats in the Senate object to its lopsided nature, as do conservative Republicans, who have policy concerns but may also object to pre- election “Biden bucks”. While the odds of enactment are higher than for a border deal, election- year politics also lean against the tax cuts becoming law. While the election’s broad policy implications are clear, what policy issues the candidates will emphasize in the run-up to the election is not.

On fiscal policy, Trump is likely to emphasize tax relief, especially for businesses. Given that Trump has been an outlier among Republicans for declining to propose benefit cuts, Biden might seek to create a wedge issue to gain support by proposing benefit expansion funded out of new taxes on corporations and the wealthy. Trump is less likely to emphasize another major proposal that could be polarizing—a 10% across the-board tariff—but if he does emphasize it, that would send a strong signal that he would try to implement it if he wins.

By Piyush Dessai

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