When soviet union disintegrated the world thought that cold war has ended. Just before that then Soviet president Gorbachev called US president of that time and told him that he is ready to unify Germany but on one condition that Nato will not expand eastward. Several decades after the event, Nato not only expanded eastwards but now is in the doorsteps of Russia with it's influence on Ukraine.

Russian president Vladimir Putin only wanted to create a buffer between Nato and Russia through Ukraine. When Ukraine tried to enter Nato and there was a threat of US navy closing in on Baltic, Putin decided to capture Crimea on 2014 to stabilize the situation in its favor. Russian troops took in the entire Crimea without firing a single shot. But Ukraine boosted by Nato promises of its imminent inclusion in the alliance continued to antagonize Putin which resulted in Russia invading Ukraine. As the war entered its second year with majority of Donbass in Russian hands, the things are changing into a dangerous situation.

Nato obsession with a Ukraine victory has already drained the latter of its male population of fighting age with more than half a million casualties. Recently Russia opened its second front in Kharkov and as per the ground reports have captured 120 Sq kilometers of Ukrainian area without much Opposition from AFU.

The border guards as well infantry units deep inside Kharkov oblast refused to fight advancing Russian units. This events points towards serious manpower shortages for Ukraine as well as shortfalls of critical weaponry. As Nato sees the collapse of Ukrainian armed forces in front of them despite giving recent billion dollar aids, it's member states are forced in a hurdle.

Recent display of Nato military hardware in Moscow during it's 9th May victory day parade has thoroughly embarrassed the Nato leadership. Considering the seriousness of the situation, the geopolitical experts are keeping a hawks eye on Germany, France and Poland, the trio of nation most vocal against Russia.

In the eventuality of collapse of Ukraine, these members may be tempted to rush in their troops in aid of Ukrainian forces and even if they keep them in the rear or flanks, their mere presence will be catastrophic for the entire Europe. Ground situation in Ukraine remains critical with Russian troops occupying 300 sq km of Kharkov Oblast and RA is sending more troops towards the direction of Sumy.

If Kharkov and Sumy falls, then it is game over for Ukraine. Recent reports from Kiev points out that Ukraine has paid tens of millions of dollars to fake companies to prepare fortified defenses around Kharkov which do not exist. If this is true then Ukrainian politicians and generals swindled millions of dollars through shell companies and they took signature of ground troops certifying fortified positions that do not exist.

Taking advantage of these, Russian army is moving around Kharkov oblast facing little resistance. If Kharkov and Sumy falls, then Russia may turn towards Chernihiv and may be Kiev. With 90000 Nato troops in Poland and Nato obsession to see Ukraine as victorious may prompt France ,UK and Germany to interfere. And if that happens, Europe will get one step closure to biggest conflict since ww2.

By Nina Polska


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