A total of 454 candidates from 25 parliamentary constituencies and 2,387 in 175 Assembly seats were in the fray in the assembly polls in Andhra Pradesh. The incumbent YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) lost to the opposition Telugu Desam Party (TDP), which is in alliance with the Jana Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The alliance secured 164 seats while Jagan’s YSRCP got a meagre 11 seats; the biggest loss by a party in Andhra Pradesh till date.

Except for Jagan, nearly all major YSRCP leaders like Kodali Nani, Vallabhaneni Vamsi, and cabinet ministers like RK Roja, Gudivada Amarnath, and Botsa Satyanarayana lost in their respective Assembly constituencies. YSRCP’s schemes like Amma Vodi, YSR Aasara, YSR Cheyutha, YSR Matsyakara Bharosa, and Aarogya Shri were well received by women voters. However, anti-incumbency against YSRCP was evident in the results that rendered their Assembly presence negligible.

This time, the state witnessed a three-cornered contest between the ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), led by Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy; the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), former chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Pawan Kalyan-led Jana Sena Party; as well as the Congress-led INDIA bloc.

It was a do or die battle for TDP supremo Chandrababu Naidu and Pawan Kalyan led Jana Sena party. The former is being aided by ace political strategist Prashant Kishore. During the last few days, political pundits and few surveys showed that YSRCP is struggling under Jagan Mohan Reddy. Discontent in YSRCP ranks with strong anti incumbency in few seats and removal of old faces in many seats created a atmosphere where NDA alliance were seen the net gainers.

Negating the various negative inputs Jagan Mohan Reddy refused to bow down and went on for a mass outreach program to woo the voters and beat back the anti incumbency.

YSRCP was in strong note six months ago, but the NDA alliance of three parties and sudden spurt in popularity of Chandrababu Naidu has jolted the party leadership. Jagan dropped a quarter of the YSRCP’s sitting MLAs or their constituencies changed, while among MPs, only 6 of 22 have been repeated. This sudden knee jerk reaction is the result of five years of high fiscal deficit in the economy which created urban distress. While Jagan kept the rural population happy through free bees , the urban population felt neglected with large scale unemployment, industrial distress and economic discontent.

Smelling large scale discontent, Jagan set off on a 22-day state-wide bus tour, with the YSRCP ensuring live telecast of the adulation showered on him by his followers. Like Jagan’s earlier yatras which earned him political dividends, this one too hit its mark, at least in stealing the limelight away from the newly formed NDA alliance.

The Ground Situation

The main contest remained between YSRCP and NDA while Congress also tried to project itself as a strong challenger boosted by recent victory in Telangana. The ground realities reflected the widening of the gap between YSRCP and NDA  but Jagan refused to hear the warning bells.

There was a clear rural-urban divide with the former in favor of Jagan due to his welfare scheme and the later inclining towards NDA miffed by Urban distress. In rural areas, Jagan tried to hold on to his main vote bank of SCs, STs and backward classes. But all efforts of Jagan to change the inevitable was negated by a spirited development oriented campaign by the combine of TDP, BJP and Janasena. The image of PM Modi also acted in favor of NDA.

In urban constituencies, issues like unemployment, lack of investment, and the general negativity towards YSRCP has forced the voters to look towards NDA or Congress. Unemployment was a major poll issue in Andhra in 2024, as it was in 2019. Before winning power in 2019, Jagan had promised to fill 7000 teacher posts among the 23,000 vacant posts in Andhra Pradesh through a ‘mega DSC’ (District Selection Committee). The mega DSC never happened. The promise that 26,000 police department jobs would be filled up was also a no-show. Jagan’s government only managed to make appointments to the village and ward secretariats.

TDP cornered Jagan on Urban distress while dodging the rural sentiment on Welfare schemes. NDA highlighted the ill conceived proposal of three capitals by Jagan, fresh in voters mind. The weird proposal by YSRCP chief of three capital just to deny Chandrababu Naidu the legacy of reinventing Amaravati as the Andhra capital has cost Jagan dearly in this election.

TDP also confused the voters through AP Land Titling Act by projecting the act as a way to grab lands and liquidate ownership. Despite being cleared by the ruling party through proper dialogues, the issue is being spread around the state and is creating confusions among the voters.

Another issue which  helped NDA and Congress is Jagan's feud with his sister Y.S Sharmila. She traveled across the state and is drew huge crowds.

The Caste Factor

Community votes was a deciding factor in Andhra Pradesh. In central and coastal region’s districts such as Krishna, Guntur, Nellore, Prakasam, East Godavari and West Godavari, the backward classes and Kapus proved to be an important factor. Pawan Kalyan who is a Kapu snatched a large pool of Kapu votes from Jagan's share of 2019.

In the Rayalaseema region, especially Kadapa district, the home district of the YSR family, the YSRCP faced backlash as the party’s sitting Kadapa MP and Jagan’s nephew, Y S Avinash Reddy, faced charges of murder in the killing of Y S Vivekananda Reddy, also a member of the family. Jagan has given the ticket again to Avinash, a two-time Kadapa MP.

The ill distribution of welfare schemes also saw TDP gaining out of YSRCP in urban areas like Vizag and mixed areas like Vizianagaram and Srikakulam.

Now Jagan has to go again back to the drawing board and is likely to ponder about the causes of his defeat and plan a come back in the future.

By Laxmi Kunjurappa

" The Author is a Political Analyst and she holds a Master Degree in Political Science and is based in Chennai "


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