In West Bengal you have to play your cards according to the local Bengali narrative to win seats in General Elections. One slight mistake and you can be termed as an outsider and will be sidelined. That is what happened to Bjp in 2024 as it failed to increase it's tally of 18 from 2019 and ended up with just12 seats.

TMC surprised many by wining 29 seats. This is exactly opposite of Exit polls which predicted 25-31 seats in West Bengal. Despite having a strong start of its campaign backed by Sandeshkhali incident, Bjp lost its steam in the month of May-24. The Sandeshkhali incident coupled with serious allegation of corruption against TMC gave Bjp the initial tailwind in the month of February and March but faded by the month of May-24.

The main reason behind this is the perception the Bengalis have for Bjp, the rise of Left- Congress combine, the welfare schemes of TMC and the consolidation of Minority votes. The first factor is the most important. Bjp state unit is still seen by the average Bengali Voters as a group of Bengal natives backed by Gujarat based powerful leaders like Modi and Amit Shah. So the local party leaders are still seen as an political force carrying the orders of its outsider bosses. So the sense belief on Bjp is much less than that of TMC, which still seen as a party of Maa, Mati and Manush.

Due to this factor only that Bjp lost its edge over Sandeshkhali and corruption issues. The narrative of Bjp on Sandeshkhali was blunted by series of string operations showing manipulation by local Bjp leaders to frame local TMC leaders. Due to the low level of faith on Bjp, the neutral Voters shifted towards TMC at the last moment giving benefit of the doubt to Mamata Banerjee.

After initial statewide resentment over alleged atrocities on women of Sandeshkhali and Bjp flooding the Social media with videos of the same, TMC hit back with series of string operation based videos to negate the advantage.

In the TMC video, Gangadhar Koyal, a BJP leader from Sandeshkhali, is purportedly seen admitting to how the party misled local women to file false rape complaints against Trinamool Congress (TMC) leaders under instructions and guidance from the Leader of the Opposition in the state assembly, the BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari.

Koyal rejected it as well as Bjp state unit and called it AI generated, but the damage was done. In one video, Rekha Patra, the BJP candidate from Basirhat – of which Sandeshkhali is a part –is seen accusing the BJP of taking “fake victims” to Rashtrapati Bhavan for submitting a complaint to President Droupadi Murmu. Patra herself claims to be a victim.

Then, in yet another video, three women are seen alleging that the BJP’s Piyali Das made them sign blank papers for submitting complaints before National Commission for Women (NCW) chairperson Rekha Sharma, who came to visit Sandeshkhali.

This series of videos left the BJP visibly embarrassed and already in edge line Voters started giving benefit of doubt to TMC. Mamata Banerjee countered these charges through allegation of interference and Manipulation by Bjp High command to create disharmony among the masses.

This events also diluted the corruption charges against TMC. Again the element of faith rested with Mamata Banerjee. The school recruitment scam, which has been troubling the TMC since September 2021, came as a major blow to the state government in the middle of the electoral campaign. On April 23, the Calcutta high court dismissed 25,753 teachers from their services, saying that the court found segregating the eligible from the ineligible was not feasible.

Here also Bjp failed to take the initiative.While the public got divided the court’s proposition of taking away 20,000-odd rightful jobs for 5,000-odd ineligible and illegal beneficiaries, some loose talks from Bjp leaders took all the advantage from the saffron party.

Suvendhu Adhikari had said a few days ago that a bomb waiting to explode would shatter the TMC the next week. On the eve of the high court verdict, BJP leader Sanmoy Banerjee wrote on Facebook that he felt bad for the 25,753 teachers who were going to lose their jobs the day after.Following the verdict, chief minister Banerjee, her nephew Abhishek, and other top leaders of the party alleged that the BJP knew the order in advance because they dictated it. The TMC portrayed the BJP as a party that was after people’s jobs.

Another incident which portrayed Bjp in wrong light is the case of Calcutta high court judge Abhijit Gangopadhyay who after passing series of orders against TMC, took retirement and joined Bjp. TMC showed this as balant example of misuse of judiciary by Bjp. The existing allegation of misuse of Central agencies by Bjp became stronger on the ground.

The Bjps narrative of development and CAA also fell flat after TMC countered the former with withholding of Central payments and the latter got lost due to its own procedural complexities. Another factor which is worth mentioning here is the weak machinery of Bjp. TMC successfully blocked consolidation of Bjp votes through selective intimidation in both rural and urban areas. Hordes of people were seen intimidating prospective Bjp Voters in upmarket colonies in Kolkata and other towns as well as in the villages. They threatened them with post poll violence. Lack of ground workers from Bjp resulted in this situation, while TMC were able to escort out their Voters to the Booth.

Against all this factors, it is very certain that Bjp has lost the initiative in Bengal and it has to start from scratch to focus on future Elections in the state.

By Partho Pratim Sengupto


" The Author is a Political Analyst and holds a MBA in Finance from IIM Kolkata and is based in Singapore "


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