The political situation in Western Uttar Pradesh this time is quite different from 2019. The political temperature remained High during the past phases of election with heated exchanges between political parties.We saw a three-cornered poll contest between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA, Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The BJP worked hand in hand with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the SP allied with the Congress for the election, while the BSP is fighting solo.

The poll campaign was launched in the region by Prime Minister Naredra Modi with a massive rally on March 31. On April 9, PM Modi held his second rally in Pilibhit, where the BJP has fielded Jitin Prasada, neglecting two-time member of Parliament Varun Gandhi. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has addressed more than 20 rallies in the constituencies going to polls in the first phase. SP president and former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav has addressed rallies in Pilibhit, Bijnor, Muzaffarnagar, Moradabad and Nagina while BSP supremo Mayawati, also a former chief minister, and her nephew Akash Anand have addressed several election meetings.

Here the contest was seen for seats like Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Baghpat, Kairana, Meerut, Ghaziabad, Bulandshahr, Nagina, Mathura, Hathras, Pilibhit etc. Unlike 2019, where the poll atmosphere was dominated by big national issue like Pulwama, Balakot Strike, Pakistan and a strong Modi wave, the mood now is much more local. A highly visual and vibrant Modi wave is missing on the surface this time. We are not saying that Modi magic has faded, it is there and is strong, but the Voters are not that vocal about it.

Employment, education and development are among the leading issues for the voters in these constituencies. While the BJP has pitched its campaign on development and the Ram temple in Ayodhya, the opposition leaders have raised the issues of farm bills and unemployment in the region. Ground reports suggest that issues like Quality of the local candidate, local Area Works done, Farm distress in various parts, short comings of Agniveer scheme and inflation were dominant Sentiments among Voters during polls

The Seats saw primarily three Corner contest between Bjp, SP- Congress and lone BSP. While poll Analyst point towards a local issue driven contest, the caste based Sentiments Continues to be the main driving agent during the polling day. While Upper Caste segments like Brahmin, Thakurs, Banias, Kayasthas are firmly behind NDA, the Yadavs and Muslims Continues to back SP and Congress. Jats are divided this time despite assurances from RLD.

Unrest of Agniveer Scheme, Farm distress, poor handling of Women Wrestlers, Political turmoil in Haryana and local issues has divided the community between Bjp and SP. The Jatav community, a significant demographic in the area, appears to be divided in its allegiance, with some members considering candidates from SP and BSP. The OBC Voters of Western UP despite being Bjp supporters were unhappy due to several local factors like political under representation, inflation, Farm distress, menace of Stray cattles etc.

While ground report suggests many of them finally voted for Bjp, a section of them opted to Seat out of Voting and did not vote for SP- Congress combine. The Mayawati factor is crucial this time. She remained aggressive this time, which led to chunk of OBC, Jatav and Non Jatav dalit votes coming back to BSP. In a three Corner contest, the event is not so good for Bjp. The Rajputs votes also got divided on issues like negative Comments from Purushottam Rupala, with a small percentage going towards the Opposition

What is more interesting this time is that contest is not fully divided between Hindu-Muslim faultlines. In communal sensitive seats like Muzaffarnagar, contest had largely narrowed down to two Jat leaders of BJP and Samajwadi Party (SP) – Sangeet Som and Harendra Mullick. In Meerut, BJP dropped three-time winner Rajendra Agarwal for Arun Govil, the ‘Ram’ of silver screen, to keep the temple issue afresh, which forced SP and BSP to come up with Hindu Candidates.

Considering all the factors it remains clear that Bjp has a strong fight in its hand, and to win atleast 14-16 out of 20 odd seats, it must get the Jat and OBC support in this region. For Jats, Bjp played the RLD card, and with the announcement of Bharat Ratna for Charan Singh, Jats may support RLD despite the simmering discontent among farmers. For OBCs, they dislike Parties like SP and BSP, which they see as parties run by Yadavs and Jatavs. OBC and Non Jatav dalits have long protested against the Yadav- Jatav domination in Rural areas. It is expected that at the last minute, the OBCs voted as per their past Trends.

One important X factor remains in the form of Muslim Women votes. If ground reports are to be believed, they are seen voting for Bjp on the issue of Triple Talak. Western UP Muslim population is highly affected by this three repetitive words. As we approach the 4th of June, the result for Western UP will be highly awaited. Whether there was a wind of Change against Bjp or there was a strong under current for Modi, only 4th of June can tell us.

"The author is owner of Media and Publication agency with 30 yrs of experience in Uttar Pradesh politics."


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